What’s Moving the Financial World

The financial landscape continues to shift rapidly, shaped by policy pressures, macroeconomic signals, and geopolitical fault lines. Below are some of the key themes and developments that investors, policy watchers, and business leaders should have on their radar.

• Wall Street is bracing for potential liquidity issues at the end of September, driven by large Treasury bill issuance, corporate tax payments, and Treasury coupon settlements.
• Though some conditions look like those in 2019, there are differences: bank reserves remain relatively high (around $3.2 trillion), and tools like the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility are in place to cushion shocks.
• Meanwhile, inflation appears to be easing in some core areas, strengthening market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates at its September meeting.

• There’s growing concern over political interference in the U.S. central bank. Moves by the Trump administration—such as pushing for removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook—are prompting criticism that the Fed’s independence is being undermined.
• European observers, including ECB President Christine Lagarde, have warned that weakening central bank autonomy in the U.S. could have serious global financial consequences.

• The U.S. is pushing for G7/EU nations to impose up to 100% tariffs on China and India in response to their continuing purchases of Russian oil. The move reflects an attempt to pressure Moscow over the war in Ukraine, but also risks antagonizing trade partners.  Closer to trade negotiations: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss trade, TikTok, rare earths, and anti‐money laundering cooperation. 
• India is also engaging actively with the U.S. on trade talks.

• Asian stock markets have been reaching record highs, helped by expectations that the U.S. Fed is nearing rate cuts. Investors are watching inflation data closely.
• Hedge funds remain cautious. Despite market rallies, many funds are staying on the sidelines, reducing leverage, and taking a more defensive posture given valuation concerns and uncertainty over macroeconomic policy.
• Investors are also worried about what a “September reset” may bring: volatile yields, doubts about tariffs, and questions around the legality of some trade policy actions are adding to risk‐off sentiment.

• In the UK, long-term borrowing costs are at their highest in over 25 years. 30‐year gilt yields have surged, reflecting market concern over fiscal policy, inflation, and political stability ahead of the autumn budget. 
• The pound has weakened alongside, pressured by questions of fiscal discipline and changing expectations around taxation and spending.

• Larry Ellison briefly became the world’s richest person again, following a massive 36% jump in Oracle’s share price. That surge was driven by strong AI-focused performance and huge quarterly bookings.
• Meanwhile, the “buy now, pay later” company Klarna made headlines with its IPO, finishing strongly despite a valuation well below earlier peaks.

• The FOMC meeting in mid-September is expected to result in a modest rate cut, but markets will be watching for signals (via the dot-plot, speeches, etc.) about how far and fast cuts might follow.
• Any developments in trade policy: new tariffs, legal rulings, or reactions from China & India will ripple through global markets.
• Fiscal policy shifts in the U.K. and Europe: tax proposals, budget announcements, and how governments manage debt issuance will be key.
• Geopolitical events that could affect supply chains, energy prices, and risk sentiment—especially relating to Russia, China, and oil markets.

• Increased volatility should be expected; risk management will be more important than chasing returns.
• Assets seen as safe-havens (gold, perhaps high-quality government bonds) may continue to perform a defensive role.
• Companies with exposure to trade, tariffs, or geopolitically sensitive sectors (energy, rare earths, tech) should reexamine risk.
• For entrepreneurs and firms, anticipating regulatory and policy changes (e.g. trade, anti-money laundering, financial regulation) is essential—both in planning and in budgeting.